15 March, 2006

So, I am sitting in my roommate Scott's comfy bucket-chair (which we recently commandeered from his room and he somehow hasn't noticed or cared) going through the daily ritual that is Madden 2006 Franchise Mode and discussing the latest great quote from Sports Guy's Quote of the Day. Then, out of the blue, my other roommate Derrick suggests that I have the potential to become a witty comedic sports writer in the mold of the immortal Bill Simmons. I quickly dismiss this notion as absolute hogwash and refocus on my latest computer victim of the All-Madden mode. Then I get to thinking...

I am a 21 year old white guy from the Detroit area that is being given advice by a large black male who is well cultured in hip-hop society and the happenings of today's youth. And I realize that I have potential to be the next Eminem...except I don't rap, I just know a lot about sports...and I don't have countless amounts of tattoos...and I don't want to kill my girl-friend...come to think of it the only similarity that I have with Eminem is that I am a white guy taking career advice from a black guy...whatever, maybe I will someday turn Derrick into the next Cowboy Troy, let me dream.

Since I have put absolutely no previous thought into any sort of writing I am somewhat uncertain of how to begin this whole shpiel. So what is easier than doing my own edition of Peter Griffin's 'Grind My Gears'. Here it goes...

You know what really grinds my gears? DIGGER PHELPS, STEVE LAVIN AND THE REST OF YOU BRACKETOLOGY LOSERS THAT THINK THAT USING THE WORD BRACKETOLOGY IS COOL AND STEAL MY FINAL FOUR PICKS AND SLEEPERS.

(Joe Linardi is a different story, that guy is unreal. I mean to be able to predict the NCAA Tournament selections year after year at a 96% success rate is amazing. I seriously don't think that people fully appreciate this. He has to go beyond all logic and sense and predict who the idiots on the selection committee are going to place in the field. I mean honestly, how many of us could have correctly predicted Air Force and Utah State over Cincinnati, Michigan and Missouri State. Or placed Atlantic 10 'powerhouse' Richmond in the 2004 field despite 12 losses...THE RICHMOND SPIDERS PEOPLE! OK back to the others.)

About this time last year, after a career worst NCAA Tournament pool finish, I vowed to pay more attention to College Basketball and deeply study the potential tournament teams so I could be ready for a bounce-back year of epic proportions.So as the season progressed I made important notes of certain teams that are Tourny over-rated:

- Gonzaga: For how much I adore Adam Morrison's style and the rest of the Zags offensive power I couldn't help but notice that they are totally inept at defense. I think a squad of Greg Ostertag, Kurt Rambis, Mark Eaton, Tony Danza, and Philip Seymour Hoffman's character from "Along Came Polly" could put up 100 on them. (As long as they had Gene Hackman and the rest of the coaching staff from Hickory High and Danza ran point to feed the ball to Hoffman, "LET IT RAIN!!!").

- Michigan State: One of the most over-rated teams in the country to start the season. Perhaps media types set their goals too high to start. They may have the best trio of big performers in the country (when they all show up to play) but Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown and Paul Davis all have their flaws. Ager is inconsistent, Brown can disappear in some games and Davis is softer than the New Brawny Man. To their credit, they began making strides until Matt Trannon's injury really ruined their season.

- UConn: The most talented team in the country, hands down. They, however, seem to suffer from the 2005 Detroit Pistons syndrome of being able to take portions of the game off and then flip on a light switch and win the game at the end. Sometimes it works, (see vs Notre Dame, Louisville and Army) in the Tournament, it won't. I also just don't really trust anyone on the UConn team enough to NOT commit a crime during the tourny and blow it for the whole team.

- West Virginia: A trendy pick after last season's surprise run in which they rained three pointers from all over. They are fun to watch and have likeable players but they just don't have the odds in their favor. Allow me to explain. The rule of thumb with three pointers is 60-40. Meaning shooting 60% on two pointers is the same as 40% on three pointers. When West Virginia is feeling it, they can easily hit 40% of three pointers and beat anyone in the country. If either Mike Gansy or Kevin Pittsnogle is off they can lose to anyone in the country. Last year they were on and made a run, this year they are more well known and teams will game plan accordingly. I picked the Mountaineers to the Sweet 16, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were upset in round one by defensive minded Southern Illinois (who could easily hold the Danza/Hoffman All Stars under 10 points in a game).

- Memphis: Along with Villanova they are perhaps the second most talented team to UConn. But this team just isn't used to winning. Outside of the great Rodney Carney they are all young and very inexperienced. None of their other regulars have even played in the Tournament, and the watered down CUSA did not help them prepare for what March Madness will bring them.

- Duke: Count me as one of the 4 people in the country who aren't true Duke fans, but really, really enjoy JJ Reddick. I can't blame many for hating him, but from someone who knows...don't be overly bitter of a player while he is great and then regret not fully appreciating him once he is gone (I was a Pistons/Barkley/Malone/ Stockton/whoever the Bulls were playing fan while MJ was around and I basically hate myself for it). That being said, this teams goes as JJ goes. Sheldon Williams is a good player but he has an absolutely massive forehead and I think I see it finally taking its tole on this over-worked neck. Freshmen Paulus and McRoberts will be great players soon, but Duke is vunerable if JJ struggles. Plus a big and athletic team can give the Dukies fits on the defensive end (HINT- SWEET 16 vs LSU).

- Villanova: I was almost ready to pencil them into the Final Four before the brackets even came out, then Pitt's Carl Krauser almost gouged Allen Ray's eye from his head in the Big East Tourny. It was one of those replays that just made you cringe when you saw it. Funny thing is, if Curtis Sumpter hadn't torn his ACL early in the year it might not have mattered. Villanova officials say that Ray is cleared to play in the tournament, if it was a sprained ankle I'd believe them, but when an organ of vision is almost ripped from the skull of a deadly shooter, his shooting may only be deadly to Nova. It's a shame, this team has the chance to change the game of College Basketball with their 4 guard attack.

- Syracuse: Hats off to Gerry McNammara for an amazing Big East Tournament. He carried that team to four straight wins in games in which they probably shouldn't have won. He has his team looking like...well, a team, instead of the group of misfits they were to start the season. That being said, I think their luck has run out. They are playing another red-hot team in Texas A&M which has won against Texas, at Texas Tech and spanked a good Colorado team in it's last four games. Syracuse's zone can be tough to solve but look for Junior guard Acie Law to stretch it with his improved three point stroke and big man Joseph Jones to dominate inside. (One good thing about the Cuse...I am pleased to announce that they will remain in the hands of a white point guard with a chin-strapped beard after G-Mac is gone. Eric Devendorf appears poised to carry the torch for 3 more years, which would shatter the former NCAA record by 6 years and 297 days.)

I also made a short list of teams that I thought could be surprise winners (since I excluded popular winners above):

- Pitt: They are tough, physical, play great defense and are lead by a fiery senior guard from the Bronx. At the beginning of the year I was telling my buddy Max (a diehard Pitt fan) how much his team was going to suck this year, making sure to mention that abomination of a football season. Oh boy was I wrong. If Carl Krauser isn't beyond shoving his index finger into an opponents eye socket to help his team win, how is a late game jumper supposed to scare him. The guy could show up drunk to start the game, pass out, wake up at half time hung over, and I would still put him in at the end to take the go-ahead shot. Big man Aaron Gray has improved leaps and bounds and is a big reason for their success.

- LSU: The Tigers have been bounced from the Tourny early the last few years, but this is a whole new Tiger squad. They are an absolute matchup nightmare for any team in the country. And it starts with 2 uber-athlete freshmen. I KNOW I KNOW, I just discredited Memphis and Duke for having young guys in key roles. The difference, Memphis has ONE experienced played and a slew of untested underclassmen that haven't faced enough top teams. Duke's youngins will be great players, but are of the variety that must develop because they aren't athletic freaks like LSU's rookies. SEC Freshman of the Year Tyrus Thomas (6'9'', 215) and fellow running mate Tasmin Mitchell (6'7'', 240) are absolute monsters who are big strong and fast. But they cower in size to sophomore Glen 'Big Baby' Davis (6'9'', 315) the guy is the size of a walrus, a walrus who is an unstoppable force in the paint. And oh yeah, to counter that size is senior guard Darrel Mitchell who can score and shoot from anywhere.

- Boston College: While their ACC Tournament push helped me confirm why I like this team so much, it unfortunately may have given my pool competitors a idea of just how good they really are. Veteran leaders Craig Smith, Louis Hinnant and Jarred Dudley won't back down from anyone and spark the nations most productive offence. They play at their own pace, play great defense and don't make mistakes. BC struggled early in the year, but that was without shot blocking forces Sean Williams and Akida McLain and with freshman sharp-shooter Tyrese Rice not seeing playing time. Smith is a beast, Dudley gives you a little of everything Rice provides the 3 ball they missed last year. This team is tough.

- Ohio State: It's strange, but for some reason I am a Michigan Wolverines fan, but actually like the Buckeyes. I would obviously never cheer against Big Blue, but when OSU plays other teams I usually want them to win. I don't know, maybe it's because I kinda fear them...not the school, the players. Which leads me to the question... which scenario with OSU football players would scare you more; a) Being in a dark alley with your expensive cell phone with Maurice Clarett and Ted Ginn and their glocks, or b) Being in an open field with AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Schlegel who are hunting you with rifles?

Anyways, the Buckeyes were a surprise to the Big Ten this year, in that they were supposed to wait for next years amazing recruit class before they won the league. They won the league anyways with a good big man, Big Ten Player of the Year Terrence Dials and excellent 3 point shooting from basically everyone else on the team. For all their strengths, one thing scares me about a Big Ten team relying on shooting so much in the Tourny...playing in Domes. It is harder to adjust than you think.

Next to do was to create a short list of potential upset teams:

- Marquette: Another team that I thought was going to be terrible that proved me wrong. This is why we don't do brackets until the end of the year. They could be this year's West Virginia, surprising everyon
e with finesse and shooting. Freshman Dominic James is electric and senior center Steve Novak can shoot from anywhere inside halfcourt. I would pay a lot of money for a three point center shootout with Kevin Pittsnogle, Steve Novak, Nevada's Nick Fazekas and Nova's Curtis Sumpter. Marquette was near unstoppable at home and will have to take that emotion on the road to a neutral site in order to surprise people. Coach Tom Crean is one of the best, even though I am still about 95% sure he and Tom Arnold are the same person.

- Bucknell: A classic team that no big school wants to play in the first round. Well coached, fundamental and deliberate. If they don't fall behind early their balanced lineup can play with anyone. Just ask Kansas, or Syracuse.

- Indiana: Say what you want about Mike Davis as a coach, the man can recruit, and his players love him. Since he announced his resignation at the end of the year he team rallied around him. Doesn't this sound familiar... oh yeah, in his first season in 2000 replacing the great Bobby Knight he lead the Hooisers to the Finals. Marco Killingsworth is one of the strongest players in the nation and he just looks like he pours honey on himself and wrestles bears for fun.

- UAB: They can be such an annoying team to play in the tourny. Extremely high-energy, full-court pressing, push the ball up the court, not afraid of anyone. And the do it every year...and every year we are surprised. UAB is like that team you play in pickup ball after your team has dominated the court all day and you are clearly the superior team, only to have this scappy, all over the place, 100% hustle, in your face team run you up and down the court until you pull the hair from your scalp and eyebrows out of frustration...that's UAB.

- Iona: LSU's first round matchup may be fatal. It sounds crazy, but if LSU can get past this Iona team, I like them to surprise Duke and make it all the way to the finals. Iona plays guard heavy basketball, like a poor man's Villanova. LSU should be able to push them around, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if this team that starts four seniors and has one of the nations top scorers (Steve Burtt 25ppg) pulls the upset. But I would be devastated if they did, it would ruin another March for me.

- Nevada: I was lucky enough to see Nevada in person in the WAC Semi's. Nick Fazekas can flat out shoot the basketball. If any team is stupid enough to not body him up, they will lose...its that simple. Ask Kansas, he lit them up for 35 this year...on Kansas' home court. He tended to shy away from contact in the game I saw, and that appeared to be the only way to stop him. Sophomore Marcelus Kemp will be a star in the near future. If only they didn't have to play BC in round 2.

As you can see, I really put a lot of work into it this year, envisioning as many scenarios as humanly possible and a plan for each one. After much thought I came up with the Final Four of Pitt, LSU, UConn and Boston College. With my sleeper teams above I thought I was set. But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, here come along Digger Phelps and Steve Lavin and their "Bracketology" and broadcast to the ENTIRE NATION nearly identical Final Fours and the SAME sleeper teams (minus U-Wisc-Milwalkee). Seriously, if someone else in my pool has my Final Four and Marquette and Indiana to the Sweet 16 I am going to shove Digger's highlighter in his eye Carl Krauser style.

On the other hand it gives me a little security that, maybe, just maybe my analysis was right. I mean it is their JOB to do this stuff, I have to go to school and deal with tests and midterms AND do this stuff, so maybe I am just some sort of sport almanac like my roommate Scott calls me. Then again, the only reason Lavin works for ESPN is because he bombed so badly as the UCLA coach that the Japanese are glad we didn't drop him on Hiroshima in WWII. By the way, I was literally laughing when Lavin took UCLA to the Final Four out of a bracket with Memphis, Pitt, Kansas and Gonzaga. Maybe I don't want the same picks as him.

Anyways, from the Final Four I pick LSU over Pitt and BC over UConn with Boston College beating LSU in the finals.
Of coarse writing all of this article was pointless if UConn shows up to play and can somehow keep from committing felonies, then it's their tourny to lose.

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