While I try and pretend like I am getting over all that, I find that it is early March and that means it is time for one of the only constants I still have in life; the NCAA Tournament. A little review of my tournament history: After winning my first Tournament pool in 7th grade (Kentucky's 1998 Championship year) I was a strong force to be reckoned with, posting several top finishes throughout high school. My success carried over into college until my sophomore year, when I inexplicably thought that it was acceptable to not watch every college basketball game on TV, leaving me unprepared for the tourney. After my disastrous last place finish that year I vowed to make a change in my life. The following year brought many hours of college basketball research, my first comprehensive NCAA Tournament preview (along with the beginning of my web-page), and deservedly so; a long awaited first place finish in my NCAA pool. Which brings us to March 2007. After a year of referring to myself as "The Champ" (which is an absolute must if you win a NCAA pool) I find it is again time to defend my title.
I realize that it might sound a little crazy for me to do all this bracket studying in an effort to outperform my friends, and then go on and publish it public ally and basically send it out to all of them. But you know what, at least I'm not like hundreds of other Americans that sent out Get-Well cards to a freaking horse that broke his leg. A horse that, I can say fairly confidently, can't read. Sorry, I am still a little caught up over the whole Barbaro thing, the only way to get over it is to proceed with my 2007 NCAA Tournament Preview.
Before the season started I listed four teams that I thought could surprise people this year:
1. Marquette: The Golden Eagles posted a solid season, reaching as high as #11 in the national rankings. Unfortunately, it seems that they may have already peaked and are on their way back down as the tourney starts. All-American guard Dominic James is in the worst shooting slump of his career and the team's best all around player, Jerel McNeal, has been sidelined with an injured thumb.
2. Xavier: Despite losing in the A-10 tournament to Rhode Island, the X-Men appear poised to make a run in the Tourney. A team that should have been ranked towards the end of the year, Xavier faces a potential round 2 game against Ohio State about 30 minutes down I-75 in Lexington.
3. Southern Illinois: Another team that reached as high as #11 in the country. Had a nice run through the difficult Missouri Valley before losing in the championship game to Creighton. The Salukis play suffocating defense.
4. Michigan: I reallllllllly don't want to talk about this one. Every single year it's the same thing. 20 plus wins, maybe one or two good wins, and an absolute meltdown in a game they have to win to close out the year. It's hard being a Michigan basketball fan in East Lansing, but it's a lot easier to be a Wolverine football fan. It is my deepest hope that Michigan losses in the NIT quickly so that Bret Petway can compete in the college slam-dunk contest, where he will easily dominate everyone and Michigan will at least have won something this year.
Three out of four isn't too bad. Right?
One of the hardest things about the Tournament is tracking potential sleepers throughout the year. I told my roommate Derrick three weeks ago this exact quote, "Winthrop will be this year's Cinderella. Take them to the Sweet 16 unless you absolutely can't live with yourself for picking against them in the first two rounds." Well, the brackets are revealed and guess what, I basically can't live with myself if I don't take Notre Dame. Lesson for the future: Don't pick sleeper teams before the brackets are released. It's like deciding your who are going to marry when you are 4, then on your 18th birthday Jessica Alba shows up to your party and asks to be your girlfriend. It's not a feeling I would wish on anyone.
Without further adieu, here are the best teams you have never heard of:
Winthrop: At 28-4 their only losses are at 1-seed North Carolina (by 7), at 2-seed Wisconsin (by 3 in OT), at 3-seed Texas A&M and at 4-seed Maryland. Led by guards Michael Jenkins and Torrell Martin and a center in Craig Bradshaw that can step out and shoot, the Eagles blew through the rest of their schedule untouched. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they face quite possibly the best 6-seed in the history of the NCAA Tournament in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It's not fair really, Notre Dame is ranked 17th in the country (which would put them at about a 4-seed) and just took #8 Georgetown down to the last play of the game in the Big East Tournament. Look at it this way; there are only 2 teams in the Midwest that I would take over Winthrop; Florida and Notre Dame. That being said, with their in-your-face defense, Winthrop still has a chance to knock off the Irish, which they could possibly ride out to the Elite 8. I, just of the life of me, can't bring myself to do it.
Oral Roberts: The Mid-Con's regular season and tournament champion was widely touted last year as the best 16 seed in the tournament's history. They lived up to the billing giving top-seeded Memphis all they could handle. This year's team is even stronger. Senior forward Caleb Green is a three-time conference player of the year averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds a game. They are the only team in America to have two different 2,000 point scorers on their roster (sharp-shooting guard Ken Tutt is joins Green). Early in the season the Golden Eagles marched into Lawrence and beat top seeded Kansas, stunning them on their home court. I got a chance to see them play in person when they traveled to my hometown to play Oakland University and I can say with confidence that Caleb Green would be a first-team conference performer in the Big Ten. Matched up against a Washington State team in the first round that guards the paint with all their might Green may be constantly double-teamed and Oral Roberts will rely on Tutt and Moses Ehambe to shoot them to the second round. Look for them to knock off the Cougars and give Vanderbilt a battle in round two.
Davidson: Led by the son of former NBA player Dell Curry, the Davidson Wildcats are an exciting team to watch. Freshman Steven Curry set NCAA records for three pointers made and thrives in their up-tempo attack. However, Davidson has no real inside presence on either end and is the country's second youngest team. A first round matchup with Maryland will likely exploit their lack of interior strength, and be their demise. Also, the Wildcats lost to the Michigan Wolverines this year, and don't sport a real marquee win. With all their youth, they could be a team to watch in the following years.
Old Dominion: Maybe the last team to be added to the tournament field, the Monarchs were upset in their conference tournament by last year's darling George Mason. Armed with undersized and competitive forwards, Old Dominion denies all passes to the post and has a terrific perimeter defender in senior guard Drew Williamson. Senior forward Valdas Vasylius is one of those players that just goes out and produces without any real apparent strength to his game. Old Dominion went on the road this year and handed Georgetown their first loss in McDonough Arena in 24 years. If they can handle the Hoyas mighty frontcourt, disposing of slumping Butler shouldn't be a problem.
Albany: Another 16 seed from last year's tournament that almost shocked the world while taking UConn down to the wire in last year's tourney. Senior guard Jamar Wilson is the two-time America East Player of the year and can light up the scoreboard. The Great Danes have almost no interior defense, which is their biggest weakness. Matched up against a Virginia team that is also guard heavy gives them a fighting chance to pull an upset. Look for Wilson to go head to head with Virginia's star guards, because if he gets off to a slow start (or no start), Albany is doomed.
Now, I am fairly certain that picking the correct sleepers in the NCAA Tournament is one of the best feelings in the world. It ranks right up there with winning the lottery, beating your roommate in Madden, watching anything with Tony Danza or Emilio Estevez and eating Mike and Ikes. However, NCAA pools are not won and lost by picking the first round upsets. Pools are won and lost by knowing which teams not seeded #1 will make a push to the Final Four. I attribute my winning the pool last year to having LSU placed into the Final Four, and luckily for me they didn't even make this year's tournament so I don't have to pick them for loyalty's sake. The following teams might not all be Final Four contenders, but they are well-known programs that may surprise some people with their success.
Notre Dame: As I mentioned earlier, the Irish are a favorite of mine this year. One of the things you can never underestimate in college basketball is momentum. For all the hype and hoop-la that the NCAA Tournament brings, it is decided by kids that are between 18 and 22 (unless you go to UConn and can't pass class or stay out of jail). The performance of kids that age depends heavily on the confidence levels of the players. Notre Dame may have lost to Georgetown in the Big East Semi's, but they battled them to the very last possession. More importantly, they did so by playing very good basketball. Collin Falls and Russel Carter are deadly three point shooters and Freshman Luke Harangody is a wide-bodied big man that plays his heart out. When those three are on top of their game (like they are now), Notre Dame is very tough to beat.
Arizona: Freakishly talented and athletic team that for some ridiculous reason never got anything together all season. Can you imagine a movie starring Will Ferrell, Steve Carell, Owen Wilson, Ben Stiller, Christopher Walken and my man Tony Danza just not be funny at all? That's what Arizona is like. The thing with teams like Arizona is that once in a blue moon the light clicks on and they are almost unbeatable. If you have never seen freshman Chase Budinger play, make it a point to. He looks like a surfer that walked in the gym with no shirt, hula shorts and flip flops, picked up a uniform and dominated. And in all likelihood, he is headed to the NBA next year.
Texas: Four words: Kev In Dur Ant.
Bob Knight said it best: He's 6'10'', fast, can dribble, he can shoot. They don't rub some special cream on him; he's just really good.
UCLA: It was a slight surprise last year when UCLA battled through a tough field and made the Title game. Despite probably having a better team this year, they seem to be somewhat overlooked. Gone from last year is point guard Jordan Farmar, who, despite all his talents, was neither a team leader or defensive standout. He was replaced by Darren Collison who actually averages more points and assists, while providing the lock down defense that is UCLA's trademark.
Xavier: If you don't know about the Xavier Musketeers men's basketball program, you need to watch more college basketball. Xavier has been one of the best mid-major programs for the last 7 years, and a few years ago made a run to the Elite Eight and gave a very good Duke team all it could handle. Oklahoma transfer Drew Lavender has provided a spark at point guard and junior forward Josh Duncan is one of the strongest players in the nation, but the Musketeers potential success is on the shoulders of shooting guard Stanley Burrell. He has disappeared in some of their big games and needs to be a factor for Xavier to knock of a higher seed.
Texas A&M: They have the perfect makeup for tournament success. Strong guard play, stingy defense, capable big men and a senior guard with ice water flowing through his veins in Acie Law IV. In a related topic, its wildly entertaining to see the name "Law IV" on the back of Acie's jersey as if we are supposed to know who the first three people with the name are. Whatever, he is letting the family name live on.
Almost as important as knowing who to take in the tourney is knowing who NOT to take. We have all been to parties where there is a crazy guy/girl that you try to avoid at all costs. These teams are the potential crazy guys/girls.
Kansas: Extremely talented and on a roll, Kansas looks poised to make a run deep into the tournament. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks everything in recent history begs to differ. Kansas has a reputation for being bounced early from the tournament the last few years, and by last few years I mean every year.
Wisconsin: One of my favorite teams in the Nation and my preseason pick to win the Big Ten, the Badgers just might not be hitting the tournament on a high note. Center and important third scorer Brian Butch is out for the year with a dislocated elbow, and second scorer Kameron Taylor has been in a shooting slump for the last two weeks. Coach Bo Ryan has one of the best systems in the country and Alando Tucker is capable of carrying the team alone, but they may have the chips stacked against them.
North Carolina: I don't have much against this team as a whole. In fact, freshman Brandon Wright is one of the better players in the nation. However, since superstar Tyler Hansbrough hit Gerald Henderson in the elbow with his nose, he has not been able to get his offensive attack back on track (that sounds like the last verse from Eminem's Till I Collapse). Unless he either gets comfortable wearing that mask or takes it off, I don't like their chances to recover.
The best thing about the NCAA Tournament is that despite the countless hours you can spend watching games all year and dissecting each team, you can end up being totally wrong with your picks. Being in an NCAA pool is just like being a team in the tournament; pretty much anyone can win. The amount of parity throughout the team basically handicaps the entire pool for everyone. The best you can do is make the most educated guess possible, which is what this preview is designed to qualify you for.
All-Region Teams followed by The-Best-Players-You-May-Have-Never-Heard-Of Teams:
MIDWEST REGION
F - Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
F - Joakim Noah, Florida
C - Al Horford, Florida
G - Aaron Brooks, Oregon
G - Russel Carter, Notre Dame
F - Valdas Vasylius, Old Dominion
F - Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech
C - Chris Daniels, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
G - Steven Curry, Davidson
G - AJ Graves, Butler
EAST REGION
F - Kevin Durant, Texas
F - Jarred Dudley, Boston College
F - Jeff Green, Georgetown (couldn't be left off the list)
C - Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
G - Dominic James, Marquette
G - Drew Neitzel, Michigan State
F - Caleb Green, Oral Roberts
F - Nick Young, USC
F - Justin Hawkins, New Mexico State
G - Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt
G - Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech
SOUTH REGION
F - Nick Fazekas, Nevada
F - Terrence Williams, Louisville
C - Greg Oden, Ohio State
G - Chris Lofton, Tennessee
G - Acie Law IV, Texas A&M
F - Keena Young, BYU
F - Brook Lopez, Stanford
G - Nate Funk, Creighton
G - Drew Lavender, Xavier
G - Jamar Wilson, Albany
WEST REGION
F - Curtis Sumpter, Villanova
F - Randolf Morris, Kentucky
C - Aaron Gray, Pitt
G - Arron Afflalo , UCLA
G - Brandon Rush, Kansas
F - Levon Kendall, Pitt
F - Deron Washington, Virginia Tech
G - (Detroit's own) Dashaun Wood, Wright State
G - Derek Ravio, Gonzaga
G - Jamaal Tatum, Southern Illinois
Labels: 2007 NCAA Tournament Preview